Food balance
The National Food Balance sheet projects that by the end of August 2024 there will be a maize surplus of about 31.07 million (50 Kg) bags, according to the State Department for Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Security report.
This is based on carryover stocks of 36.6 million bags and estimated 1.08 million (50 Kg) bags as forecast imports over the next 3 months.
Agriculture Principal Secretary Paul Rono says that the status of the national stocks and consumption estimates shows that about 24.5 million bags of maize will be harvested from the long rains crop from low altitude, warmer Counties which includes crop planted early in January which is Bomet, parts of Narok, Nyamira and parts of Migori counties.
“The available stocks are enough for the country up to the next main harvest of long rains starting August 2024 in most Counties,” he said.
The PS noted that the wheat balance sheet projected to end of August 2024 show a surplus of 10.2 million 50 kg bags, assuming private sector imports of 8.7 million 50 kg bags in the next 3 months while the Rice Balance Sheet projected to end of August 2024 show a surplus of 4.1 million 50 kg bags based on carryover stocks 3.3 million 50 kg bags.
The beans balance sheet projected to end of July 2024 shows a surplus of 10.3 M of 50 Kg bags based on Carryover stocks of 3.4 million bags; approximately 270,000 bags estimated imports by the private sector over the next three months, and about 9 million bags to be harvested by early June and July.
The PS noted that the total imports of maize for May decreased from 523,771 (50kg bags) in April to 516,151 (50kg) bags and compared to 633,555 (50kg bags) imported in March.
“Most of the maize imports was from Tanzania with considerable amounts coming in from Uganda,” said Dr. Rono. He added the quantity of beans imported in May doubled from 5,153 bags (50 Kgs) to 11,931(50kg) imported in April but still the total imports are very low compared to previous years.
In addition, the quantity of rice imported in May decreased further to 352,300 (50 kg) bags compared to 610,020 (50 kg) bags imported in April and compared to 1.185 million (50 kg) bags imported in March. The recent Food and Nutrition Security Report according to the PS, has improved from May, and that most of the staple foods are available both at household and markets.
“The prices of basic staples, especially cereals and pulses continued to decline in the Month of May as some farmers who had been keeping the stocks on speculation decided to release the stocks into the market,” Dr. Rono said
“The overall gradual decline in staple food prices continues to improve household food access and availability, with cross-border imports and prospects of harvests from the current season likely to maintain price declines in the coming months,” PS Rono noted
On food commodity prices trends, the balance sheets show that food prices continue to be high compared to long term average at this time of the year but all have shown signs of decrease with exception of rice. “Grains are available in the markets as a result of the domestic production which has boosted the availability of commodities in the market.
In May 2024, the national average wholesale price of a 90 kg bag of maize decreased from Sh3,600 to Sh 3,450 and the highest wholesale price was reported in Kisii and Kisumu at Sh4,000 per 90 Kg bag However, the average wholesale price of beans in May increased to Ksh 12,051 compared to Kshs 11,285 in April compared to Sh12,000 in March and Sh12,050 in February.
The prices have stabilized compared to 2023 due to availability of domestic stocks at household level.
The average wholesale price for a 50 kg bag of Irish potatoes also increased in May to Sh3,900 compared to April wholesale price of Sh3,500 per 50 kg bag and this was driven by low supplies but the next major harvest for newly planted crops is expected this month.