By Stewart Maclean, BBC News, Nairobi
Elected in 2022 pledging to cut corruption, shore up the country’s faltering economy and help the poor, the embattled Mr Ruto now faces an unprecedented rebellion against his finance bill – legislation he says he is an essential part of his plan to build the nation.
It might be easier to know which way to turn if the opposition Mr Ruto faced was confined within parliament.
An astute political player, deputy president for almost a decade before being elected to the top spot, Mr Ruto has years of experience wrangling politics to get things done.
Now though, the forces massed against him are something truly beyond his control.
A mass movement which grew organically out of discontent expressed on social media has grown into a powerful rebellion which has filled the streets of cities and towns across the country.
In the capital, the Nairobi governor’s office, city hall and the country’s parliament have this afternoon all been set ablaze. The protesters had started the day threatening a “total shutdown”. And at the end of a day of chaos and panic across the country, often set against the sound of teargas and at times live fire from police, there is no doubt their fury has been heard.
For Mr Ruto, the choice now seems to be about whether to yield to the demonstrators and abandon his budget, or to dig in and push it through, risking further turmoil and bloodshed on the streets. He has argued the raft of new taxes are essential to control Kenya’s debt – a huge sum of more than $80bn (£63bn), which costs the country more than half of its annual tax revenues to service.
Kenya secured a restructuring of its international debt commitments earlier this year – something which immediately pushed a surge in the value of its currency, the shilling. Increasingly seen as one of Africa’s leading statesmen, recently returned from a state visit to the White House, Mr Ruto understands the importance to his nation’s economy of avoiding a default on its debt payments.
For those in his government the calculation was that controlling the state finances by increasing the tax burden was preferable to cutting public services. The finance bill, which was due to become law on Monday, originally brought in dozens of new or increased taxes on everything from car ownership and financial transactions to sanitary pads.
Several of the most contentious taxes have already been dropped following consultation with the public.
But the controversy over the budget follows other revenue-raising measures introduced by Mr Ruto, including increased taxes for healthcare and low-cost housing.
And for those on the street, there’s a third solution available to the government beyond cutting services or raising taxes.